New report: European solar sector issues yellow card as market data reveals 92% growth decline and investment slump

• Following several years of over 40% year-on-year growth, a new report from SolarPower Europe warns that 2024 brings only 4% annual growth to the EU solar market. This represents a 92% growth slowdown. The EU installed 66 GW of solar in 2024, inching past 2023’s record of 63 GW. 

• 2024 also marks the first year where annual investment in solar installations in the EU dropped in the 2020s. A decline of 13% to 55 billion EUR is attributed to falling component prices lowering capital expenditure. 

• At national-level, five of 2024’s top ten solar markets installed less solar than in 2023 (Spain, Poland, Netherlands, Austria, and Hungary). The other leading markets, Germany, Italy, France, Greece, and Portugal offered modest growth, with most installing around 1 GW more than they did in 2023. 

• Demand for residential rooftop solar declined in 2024, as the impact of the energy crisis fades. In 2024, new home solar installations decreased by almost 5 GW compared to last year, with 12.8 GW installed. 

• While gas crisis impacts wear off for now, a slower solar forecast in the years to come is credited to wider system challenges. Sluggish electrification rates suppress demand and a lack of energy system flexibility leads to solar curtailment and negative pricing, undermining European energy security and competitiveness.
   

BRUSSELS, Belgium (Tuesday 17th December 2024): After four years of soaring growth, the EU solar sector has hit its first deployment slowdown of the 2020s, dropping from 53% growth in 2023 to 4% in 2024. This represents a 92% slowdown of solar growth. 

SolarPower Europe’s annual EU Market Outlook for Solar Power reveals that 65.5 GW of solar has been installed in 2024, just beating the 2023 record of 62.8 GW of new solar. The total EU solar fleet now stands at 338 GW, quadrupling from 82 GW a decade ago.

Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO at SolarPower Europe, said, “European policymakers and system operators can consider this year’s report a yellow card. Slowing solar deployment means slowing the continent’s goals on energy security, competitiveness and climate. Europe needs to be installing around 70 GW annually to hit its 2030 targets – we need to consider corrective action now, before it’s too late.”

The slowdown comes despite falling solar component prices and lower upfront costs for solar installations. Ground-mounted utility-scale solar projects saw an average cost decline of 28% in 2024. Despite the lower cost of capital, solar investment fell for the first time in the 2020s, from €63 billion in 2023 to €55 billion in 2024. 

On rooftops, the report credits limited growth to the temporary resolution of the gas crisis. Households with solar and a heat pump saved up to 84% on their monthly energy bills during the height of the energy crisis – with less pressure on monthly energy bills for now, households are less inclined to invest in solar panels. Therefore, larger solar installations are likely to grow quicker than rooftop in the EU in the second half of the decade. However, with rooftop installations starting from a larger base, they will hold a greater share of the EU’s total solar through the decade, compared to utility scale. 

More widely, the market slowdown is attributed to system conditions. Europe’s electrification rate has been stuck at 23% for the past five years, leaving most of the energy system dependent on fossil fuels and combustion. The Electrification Alliance is calling for 35% electrification by 2030. 

At the same time, system flexibility must work quickly to catch up to solar deployment. A flexible, electrified system will slash 2030 day-ahead energy prices by 25%, while boosting the solar business case by 71%. Amongst other flexibility tools, this will require a 16-fold growth from 48 GWh of EU battery storage today to 780 GWh of battery storage in 2030. 

Dries Acke, Deputy CEO at SolarPower Europe (he/him) said: “Low-cost solar is the best option for bringing Europe into a new era of competitiveness. We need to complete our detachment from Russian gas and avoid LNG dependence. Europe’s industries needs clean and affordable electricity to stay competitive, and Europe’s renewable sector needs more flexible electricity demand to reinforce their business case. We call on the new European Commission to leverage this mutually reinforcing opportunity and build the Clean Industrial Deal around renewables, flexibility and electrification.”

Looking forward, the future looks less bright than previously forecast. By 2028, the sector could be installing 82 GW per year, with annual growth only in the 1-digit range of 3-7%. By 2030, the most-likely ‘medium’ scenario forecasts 816 GW total solar capacity in the EU, that’s 8% down from our estimate of 890 GW only six months ago. Furthermore, for the first time, our ‘low’ scenario for 2030 warns that Europe could miss its REPowerEU target of 750 GW, and achieve only 650 GW. 

Notes

• Modelling shows that more renewables, electrification and flexibility can boost European competitiveness, slashing average day-ahead energy prices by 25% by 2030, and by 33% by 2040. At the same time, the solar capture prices will be 71% greater in 2030 compared to the baseline, and 54% higher by 2040, supporting the sustainable growth of solar project developers. Discover Mission Solar 2040.  

• The EU Joint Research Centre warns that Europe needs to double its energy system flexibility by 2030 and increase by sevenfold by 2050.

• In March 2023, our Solar Powers Heat report revealed that during the energy crisis households with solar and a heat pump saved up to 84% on their monthly energy bills during the height of the energy crisis. Read more.

What is Flexibility?  

Energy system flexibility is the ability of an energy system to adapt to changing conditions, such as variations in demand and supply. The key means are smart and interconnected grids, storage and demand response.

Consumers, electricity generators, or technology like storage, can use flexibility to adjust how they feed in electricity to the grid or consume electricity from the grid. This is important to match grid needs or solar availability. 

In real life that looks like a solar power plant coupled with battery storage, or a smart charging station that charges a car when rooftop solar PV is producing abundantly. 

Flexibility means the energy system is being used more efficiently, and so less investment is needed for slow-to-build grid infrastructure. 

Discover the #LetsFlex campaign 

What is Electrification? 

Electrification means building an energy system on the principal of electricity – rather than combustion. So induction cookers rather than gas hobs, and vehicles that run on electricity, rather than diesel and other fossil fuels. Today, 24% of Europe’s energy system is electrified. We should reach at least 60% electrification in the EU by 2050 to achieve climate neutrality. 

 Discover the Electrification Alliance 

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