EU countries’ solar targets for 2030 jump by 63% - but reality still outstrips ambition

• 12 EU Member States have submitted their revised National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) since the deadline in June. The updated plans add a new 90 GW of EU solar ambition, bringing the total target, for now, to 425 GW of solar by 2030.

• By weighted average, the new targets increased by 63%, with Lithuania increasing by 500%. Finland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Sweden more than doubled their previous targets, with Spain increasing its target by 94%.

• Considering the most recent targets available, 4 EU countries have already reached their set solar target for 2030; 19 countries will most likely reach their target within the next 5 years; the final 4 will likely reach their goals between 2027 and 2030.

BRUSSELS, Belgium (Friday 4th August 2023): New analysis from SolarPower Europe reveals that, with almost half of new draft NECP plans submitted, EU countries are aiming to more than double EU solar capacity by 2030. 

With 12 submissions from EU countries, 15 EU countries have not met the 30 June deadline to submit their updated targets to the European Commission. 

An interim analysis of currently available NECPs reveals that 4 EU countries have already reached their set solar target for 2030. 19 countries will most likely reach their target within the next 5 years. The final 4 will likely reach their goals between 2027 and 2030.

Figure 1. Solar targets in NECPs 2019 and updates 2023 compared to current installed capacity. Note: Only targets expressed in NECPs are included. 

Despite an average ambition increase of 63%, out of the 12 updated NECPs, 8 countries will reach their new 2030 target at least 3 years early. 

Figure 2. Expected achievement year of solar NECP target. Member States who submitted draft NECP updates are shown in yellow. Expected achievement year is based on Medium Scenario data from SolarPower Europe’s Global Market Outlook 2023-2027.

From around 208 GW installed today, according to latest available targets, EU countries are aiming for 425 GW of solar capacity at the end of the decade. The European Commission has set a target of 750 GW by the same year. Modelling current installation trends, we can see reality already outstripping this level of ambition. According to latest research, SolarPower Europe anticipates a most-likely scenario where over 900 GW of solar capacity will be installed in the EU by 2030.

Figure 3. Aggregate NECP target in comparison to EU Solar Strategy target. 

Head of Market Intelligence at SolarPower Europe, Raffaele Rossi, said: “Our latest analysis reveals that the way governments think about solar has definitively changed. However, given that the role of a target is to go beyond business-as-usual, and sketch out the plan for the new energy system, ambition is still falling short. Grid operators, citizens, businesses, and energy providers all need to be able to prepare for the reality of a solar and renewable based energy system.”

In 2019, the EU mandated its member states to publish and implement 10-year National Energy and Climate Plans. Running from 2021 to 2030, NECPs are meant to set out the country targets, policies, and measures that will enable the country to reach the 2030 EU renewable targets. By 30th June 2023 Member States were supposed to submit a draft update of the NECPs to the European Commission or justify that the current plan remains valid. By August 2023, only 12* have been received and published, and 15 are outstanding.

*HR, CY, DK, FI, IT, LT, LU, NL, PT, SV, SK, ES, SE

This press release has been updated to correct our earlier analysis on the Netherlands NECP target. Previously we commented that the Netherlands had reduced their goal for 2030 and therefore would achieve their 2030 target in the course of next year. On further analysis, the Dutch target is unchanged, however this goal is still expected to be achieved in 2024, meaning the Netherlands will achieve their 2030 solar target six years early.